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Coreia do Norte: "E agora?", em três cenários

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As ameaças de guerra por parte da Coreia do Norte não são novidade. Menos usuais são a intensidade e persistência com que Pyongyang o está a fazer desta vez. A isto soma-se um líder de 29 anos, com o poder subitamente nas mãos. Confira o que pode seguir-se, em três cenários

2012 World Press Photo of the year by Samuel Aranda, Spain, for The New York Times
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2012 World Press Photo of the year by Samuel Aranda, Spain, for The New York Times

2nd prize Arts and Entertainment Singles category by Vincent Boisot, France, Riva Press for Le Figaro Magazine
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2nd prize Arts and Entertainment Singles category by Vincent Boisot, France, Riva Press for Le Figaro Magazine

1st prize Arts and Entertainment Stories category by Rob Hornstra, The Netherlands shows the Sochi Project
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1st prize Arts and Entertainment Stories category by Rob Hornstra, The Netherlands shows the Sochi Project

1st prize Contemporary Issues Singles category by Brent Stirton, South Africa, Reportage by Getty Images for Kiev Independent
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1st prize Contemporary Issues Singles category by Brent Stirton, South Africa, Reportage by Getty Images for Kiev Independent

1st prize Daily Life Singles category by Damir Sagolj, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Reuters
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1st prize Daily Life Singles category by Damir Sagolj, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Reuters

1st prize Daily Life Stories by Alejandro Kirchuk, Argentina "Never Let You Go"
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1st prize Daily Life Stories by Alejandro Kirchuk, Argentina "Never Let You Go"

1st prize Nature Singles category by Jenny E. Ross, USA. Novaya Zemlya
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1st prize Nature Singles category by Jenny E. Ross, USA. Novaya Zemlya

1st prize Nature Stories category by Brent Stirton, South Africa, Reportage by Getty Images for National Geographic
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1st prize Nature Stories category by Brent Stirton, South Africa, Reportage by Getty Images for National Geographic

1st prize General News Singles category by Alex Majoli, Italy, Magnum Photos for Newsweek
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1st prize General News Singles category by Alex Majoli, Italy, Magnum Photos for Newsweek

2nd prize People in the News Singles category by Tomasz Lazar, Poland shows the arrest of protesters in Harlem, New York City
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2nd prize People in the News Singles category by Tomasz Lazar, Poland shows the arrest of protesters in Harlem, New York City

2nd prize General News Stories category by Paolo Pellegrin, Italy, Magnum Photos for Zeit Magazin
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2nd prize General News Stories category by Paolo Pellegrin, Italy, Magnum Photos for Zeit Magazin

1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse
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1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse

1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse
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1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse

1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse
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1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse

1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse
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1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse

1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse
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1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse

1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse
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1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse

1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse
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1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse

1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse
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1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse

1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse
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1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse

1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse
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1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse

1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse
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1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse

1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse
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1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse

1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse
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1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse

1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse
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1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse

1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse
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1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse

1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse
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1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse

1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse
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1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse

1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse
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1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse

1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse
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1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse

1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse
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1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse

1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse
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1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse

1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse
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1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse

1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse
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1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse

1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse
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1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse

1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse
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1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse

1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse
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1st prize People in the News Stories category by Yasuyoshi Chiba, Japan, Agence France-Presse

A Coreia do Norte continua a subir de tom nas ameaças, fazendo entender que estará iminente um ataque nuclear. Na semana passada, dava o dia 10 como o último dia em que podia garantir a segurança dos diplomatas, por exemplo. 

O responsável pela cadeira da Ásia e Japão no Centro de Estudos Estratégicos e Internacionais, da Universidade norte-americana de Georgetown, Michael Green, traçou à CNN três cenários possíveis:

1. O que Kim Jong Un espera :

Com este clima de tensão, os mercados financeiros da Coreia do Sul caem a pique. Os líderes chineses entram em pânico com a instabilidade na sua fronteira. Os EUA querem desesperadamente 'despachar' o problema da Coreia do Norte, para poderem lidar com a crise no Irão. Pyongyang  propõe negociações para um tratado de paz que ponha um fim formal à guerra da Coreia, mas exige, para isso, a suspensão das sanções internacionais de que é alvo. Washington, Seul e Tóquio concordam... mas a Coreia do Norte continua o processo de produção de armas nucleares, à base de urânio, em instalações subterrâneas e secretas.

Um ano depois, testam uma ogiva mais sofisticada. Pyongyang exige então o fim das restantes sanções internacionais, o reconhecimento como um legítimo estado nuclear e uma reunião na capital norte-coreana com o Presidente americano Barack Obama.

Para dar força à sua ameaça, a Coreia do Norte bombardeia várias ilhas do Sul e ameaça usar as suas novas armas nucleares.

A crise recomeça, mas com uma Coreia do Norte mais perigosa. 

O que EUA, Coreia do Sul e Japão esperam:

A imprevisibilidade de Kim faz finalmente o seu maior aliado, a China, virar costas ao regime. 

Quando Pyongyang subir o tom das ameaças, Pequim corta o abastecimento de petróleo em 50 por cento.

A Coreia do Norte concorda em assinar uma moratória sobre testes de mísseis e armas nucleares e retoma as negociações sobre o fim do seu programa nuclear. 

Com isto, abrem-se fissuras no regime.

O que ninguém quer:

A estratégia de Kim Jong Un falha e as potências mundiais continuam ser reconhecer a Coreia do Norte como um legítimo possuidor de armas nucleares.

Prosseguem as ameaças para aterrorizar a Coreia do Sul e a China continua a elogiar o "bom comportamento" de Pyongyang. O líder aprova um ataque contra as montanhas desabitadas nos arredores de Seul. O Sul responde e Pyongyang ataca com artilharia mais pesada e mísseis. Os EUA aliam-se à Coreia do Sul. O conflito acaba com a derrota da Coreia do Norte e a queda do líder,

Onde estamos agora? Algures entre o primeiro e o seguro cenário, acredita Michael Green.